March 2026
Oil prices have surged due to conflict-related risks around the Strait of Hormuz, temporarily interrupting a macro environment that had been trending in a favorable direction. While oil prices have pulled back from their highs, Brent crude is still trading over $100 per barrel, driving ripple effects across the dollar, bond yields, and the stock market. Read More
February 2026
Several industries, led by software, have sold off significantly year to date, as investors assess the impact of artificial intelligence on established business models. While some companies will face genuine pressure, the initial market response is often indiscriminate—pricing in disruption broadly before fully understanding the scope and timing of new innovations. Over time, the market will distinguish between structural losers and firms that successfully adapt and continue to grow. Read More
January 2026
The U.S. economy remained resilient in 2025. Despite a cooling labor market, a weak housing sector, and uncertainty around tariff policy, the economy continued to grow, supported by steady spending, AI-driven investment, and lower interest rates. Read More
December 2025
Our base case for 2026 is no recession. Accommodative monetary policy is set to deepen via Fed rate cuts, a dynamic further reinforced by fiscal stimulus to sustain economic momentum. While short-term volatility is possible, the combination of rate cuts, a stabilizing labor market, and continued economic resilience provides a constructive backdrop for markets. Read More
November 2025
The Fed cut rates for the second consecutive meeting, and although another cut this year remains uncertain, history suggests that easing policy amid strong markets often supports further gains. Read More
October 2025
Enthusiasm over advancements in artificial intelligence has fueled a significant stock rally, but in our view, it is not a bubble—at least not yet. While AI has clearly captured investor attention, today’s market leaders are far more profitable and better capitalized than tech names during past bubbles. Speculation exists, but widespread skepticism and strong fundamentals—like earnings, margins, and cash flow—are helping anchor valuations. Read More
September 2025
The Federal Reserve has resumed rate cuts. As expected, the central bank lowered the benchmark rate by 0.25% in this month’s meeting, and the updated dot plot points to two additional rate cuts by year-end. Inflation remains sticky, but the Fed’s bigger worry is the labor market, which has clearly weakened and now demands attention. Read More
August 2025
Every August, we “Chart the Course” with a series of charts that highlight key current and historical trends in the economy and markets. We hope you find them both insightful and useful. Our regular commentary will resume in September. Read More
July 2025
The newly signed tax bill passed by Congress and the President the first week of July delivers front-loaded stimulus aimed at boosting near-term growth while cushioning tariff impacts. Despite longer-term deficit concerns, it’s a net positive for the economy in the short run. Read More
June 2025
Geopolitical tensions flared last week as Israel and Iran exchanged strikes, sparking a swift market response—stocks dipped and oil surged. While the headlines are serious, historical context and energy dynamics suggest a short-term shock, not a lasting shift. Read More
May 2025
The temporary U.S.–China tariff suspension is a clear step forward, lowering effective tariff rates to more manageable levels. But uncertainty remains, especially for small businesses and the direction of future negotiations. Sentiment-based “soft” data continues to fall sharply, while hard economic indicators remain resilient. Read More
April 2025
The tariffs took effect on April 9. But the very same day, the President paused tariffs on all non-retaliating countries, except China. The pause will allow more time for negotiations, but additional clarity on the end goal and policy implementation will be needed for investors and companies to regain confidence. Read More